Just as many people begin to make plans for summer travel, airlines across the glob are struggling to deliver. Last-minute flight cancellations are now seemingly de rigueur, and frustrated travelers range from stranded parents and children to disgraced celebrities like Bill O'Reilly, recently filmed threatening a JetBlue gate agent.

Even Mike Tyson seems on edge.

Many people in the United States have stayed on the job market’s sidelines in the wake of the pandemic, contributing to a shortage of labor in many industries, including travel and hospitality.

Leisure and hospitality led an increase in jobs in March, accounting for 112,000 of 431,000 jobs added overall, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But employment in the sector is down by 8.7 percent since February 2020.

Among 1.6 million jobs yet to recover, 1.5 million are in leisure and hospitality, according to the U.S. Travel Association. The airlines are definitely in that mix.

The industry has taken a long time to replace jobs lost in the covid-19 pandemic, and the staffing issues have resulted in headaches for air travelers. Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States hit 377 yesterday, according to travel tracking site FlightAware.

In early 2020, the air industry slashed jobs because of covid's stay-at- home orders and the possibility of curbed air travel. In February to October 2020, the industry - which includes full-time and part-time employees at passenger and cargo airlines - lost 1 out of 10 of its jobs, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

The airlines filled some of the lost jobs, but there is still a large deficit of pilots. In 2021, there were 17 percent fewer active commercial pilot certificates - the type of certificate required to fly a passenger plane compared to 2009, according to data from the Federal Aviation Administration.

The Perfect Storm

Travel is approaching pre-pandemic levels with around 2 million passengers passing through TSA daily. The demand for travel is more than expected. American Airlines, JetBlue, and Southwest Airlines have both had to cancel numerous flights because of their labor shortages. An American Airlines representative says, “we made targeted changes with the goal of impacting the fewest number of customers by adjusting flights in markets where we have multiple options for re-accommodation.” However, this still results in about 50-80 flight cancellations a day from American Airlines alone. Most of their cancellations are out of O’Hare or DFW.

JetBlue cancelled dozens of flights out of Boston earlier in April, a situation the airline claimed due to staffing and weather. "Despite hiring more than 3,000 new crewmembers already this year, like many businesses, we remain staffing constrained and these disruptions exacerbate an already challenging staffing situation."

However, JetBlue's woes continued even as the weather improved. This author's flight out of Boston yesterday, for example, was cancelled a few hours before boarding.

Scott Keyes, author of “Take More Vacations,” says that “after airlines added a ton of flights to their summer schedules to meet growing demand, they’re having to make changes based on factors like how many pilots or crew members they have available to work those days.”

The challenges the airlines face is largely a result of understaffing. Unemployment levels are still higher than they were before the pandemic at 5.8% as opposed to 3.5% in February 2020. American Airlines cut 90,000 employees by the end of 2020 and furloughed 30,000. In addition, around 1,000 pilots also accepted early retirement offers. Once pilots accept retire, they don’t return to flying, so the US currently has a pilot shortage. As you can probably imagine, the demand for qualified pilots is high now. However, there are only so many people who are able to fly commercial aircraft.

The impact goes beyond disruptions to holiday and business travelers - some regions will see themselves entirely without air travel.

SkyWest recently submitted a request to the USDOT to release them from their contractual obligations and allow the termination of their air service routes within 29 Essential Air Service (EAS) communities throughout the country. The rationale cited by SkyWest in their announcement is “due to a result of an ongoing pilot staffing imbalance across the industry”.

Severe pilot shortage

In terms of passenger airlines, American Airlines took the lead by adding more than 1,300 employees, and Southwest Airlines followed closely at 1,132 employees. On the other hand, there was only a slight increase of just 368 employees in January, with FedEx taking the lead for cargo carriers.

Even though the numbers seem to be on an improving trend consecutively, a significant deficit of pilots still exists. Commercial pilot certificate holders continued to increase from 2015 to 2020 when the pandemic slowed things down. With aviation academies opening up more slots and as airlines are actively hiring, there were approximately 17% fewer active commercial pilot certificates in 2021 than in 2009.

It probably doesn't help that hiring a pilot is not as simple as it seems, considering the vigorous months of required training that requires both money and time. Adding in that flight crews can only work a specific set of hours, airlines need an adequate operable crew at hand and reasonable amounts of replacement crews to account for bad weather that could lead to delays.

Not Just Pilots Who are MIA

There are additional staffing issues for the airlines. According to airline consultancy Oliver Wyman's annual MRO report, which covers the aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul sector, there are critical staffing issues among workers who maintain aircraft.

A lack of technical staff was cited as the top disruptor for the MRO industry over the next five years. Some 80% of North American respondents said that finding mechanics and technicians has become challenging, with Europe (65%) and other geographies (79%) feeling a similar strain. The challenge of securing labor has become critical, with more than half of survey respondents reporting that the lack of labor is already beginning to constrain growth – even with demand not yet fully at pre-pandemic levels.

COVID brought about a wave of retirements and fewer new people are entering the industry. While apprentice programs and technical school partnerships continue to work well as traditional recruitment tools, it is not enough to combat the overall talent shortage.

Queues at Manchester Airport, Britain's third busiest after London's Heathrow and Gatwick, snaked out of one terminal as the Easter holiday approached, and passengers complained of hours waiting at the baggage carousel.

The airport has apologized for the disruption.

"As we continue to recover from the pandemic and passenger numbers grow, security queues may be longer than usual at times," it said on Twitter.

Britain's Airport Operators Association said its members were increasing staff as quickly as possible.

But a combination of a tight labour market, delays in the security checks for new and returning staff as well as COVID-related absences could put some airports under strain.

"This may mean longer queues at peak travel times," it said.

Dublin Airport warned passengers that lengthy queues were likely for weeks as it rebuilds its operation and recruits and trains new security staff.

"At a time when the concept of how and where people work has radically changed, MRO leaders need to engage and attract a new generation of workers - who value quality of life and are very concerned about climate change. It will be a tough sell," said Brian Prentice, a partner with Oliver Wyman.

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