The US saw just under 3 million new unemployment claims last week, according to the the Labor Department update this morning. Unemployment claims over the past two months are now 36.5 million.

There are a few things to keep in mind here:

1. This isn't the peak, nor even the actual number. But it's getting within range. And it's discomforting.
   "As high as the official unemployment rate is — BLS said it reached 14.7 percent in April — that likely understates the damage, because large numbers of people misclassified themselves as employed but absent from work, artificially suppressing the jobless rate by about five percentage points." Politico 5.14.2020
   
   In other words: we're at least dialed in. Granted, unemployment at close to 20% is a hard reality but one which isn't a shock. And it may be temporary (see below). Initial claims seem to be dropping after the first surge. But it's still a massive number.
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1. We are going to see swings as we reopen, and adjust to any outbreaks or new surges. But there is some hope.
   “With most states only beginning to ease their lockdowns within the last 10 days, we expect a much bigger swing in hiring versus firing over the next couple of weeks, which suggests the unemployment rate will begin to drop back,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. CNBC 5.14.2020
   
   "18.1 million people were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, a tenfold increase from the previous month. That means those workers think they have jobs waiting for them once the economy reopens. 'If that's true, then this'll be the shortest depression in history,' Robert Frick, a corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, told Business Insider." Business Insider 5.14.2020
   
   The bounceback when it comes may mean rapid rehiring. And recruiting is going to play a critical role here - the industry should be prepping.
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2. The crystal ball is cloudy, at best. No one is laying bets on where this is headed.
   “The pace of that improvement will be the best barometer of how fast and how completely the economy is recovering,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR. “We expect that an initial burst of growth as major population areas reopen will then be followed by a longer period where improvement is much slower and more uneven, with it taking many quarters for the economy to claw its way back to pre-pandemic levels of activity.” Financial Times 5.14.2020
   
   Things are going to remain uncomfortably inconsistent.

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