According to an analysis of data from the Depart of Labor by Bloomberg, the US is seeing year-over-year declines in the number of H-1B visa applicants.

STEM applicants, in particular, dropped by double-digits in the biggest decline in over a decade. U.S. employers’ preliminary applications submitted for engineering and mathematics jobs under the H-1B visa program fell 12.6% in the fiscal year ending September 2021 compared to the previous year.

This combined metric for all job categories totaled more than 497,000 during fiscal year 2021, a 9% decrease from 2020 and 17% decline from 2019. The data Bloomberg News analyzed dates back to 2011.

“Since March 2020, the processing of any new visas has been dramatically slowed and almost halted by travel restrictions,” said Giovanni Peri, a professor of economics at the University of California, Davis. Some jobs in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM, may be lost in the visa crunch for good as remote work could offshore them outside of the U.S., according to Peri.

The data suggest that the decline has several causes, ranging from pandemic-driven delays in processing visas, to tightened immigration laws. Restrictive immigration policies - ex-president Donald Trump halted H-1B applications for 10 months and tried to make the criteria for getting H-1Bs stricter - have made things worse.

Given that last year was plagued by uncertainty, employers may have also filed too many anticipatory applications that they eventually didn’t see through.

According to immigration attorney Nandini Nair, this decline in hiring for H-1B foreign STEM workers indicates the field of technology wasn’t immune to the disruptions caused by Covid-19, although it was hit to a lesser extent compared with other industries. Nandini Nair is a partner at Greenspoon Marder.

Shannon Donnelly, a partner at Morgan Lewis, believes that what we’re seeing right now is a resurgence in hiring across the board whether it would be for those sponsorships or not. She expects an uptick as we pull out of the pandemic.

That said, usually, the number of applications far exceed the available visas. This year, for the first time, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) was forced to run a third lottery to “select additional registrations” for fiscal year 2022, which starts on Oct. 1, 2022. We'll see employers step up - in a time of massive hiring needs, any additional talent helps.

Immigrant STEM worker hesitations about USA rising, as Canada beckons

On the flip side, the US is seeing some disillusionment rising among sought-after technical immigrants. Talent that is now moving north of the border - adjusted for population, Canada admits three times as many immigrants as America.

Consider talent like Vikram Rangnekar, a former H1-B holder now living in Toronto. In an interview with CNBC, he detailed how he had felt trapped in a job due to his visa, and that the green card process by 2018 had become an endless waiting game. By moving to Canada, he was able to get permanent resident status (similar to a US green card), and has launched several businesses as a result.

In addition, the Trump administration build a deliberate nationalist brand which has soured many would-be STEM immigrants on the US as the destination of choice. (Canada now holds that honor - Canada Replaces U.S. as Top Work Destination).

“Canada is benefiting from a diversion of young Indian tech workers from U.S. destinations, largely because of the challenges of obtaining and renewing H-1B visas and finding a reliable route to U.S. permanent residence,” said Peter Rekai, founder of the Toronto-based immigration law firm Rekai LLP, in an interview with Forbes in 2020.

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