Dive Brief:

• Seasonal U.S. retail hiring is expected to fall 2.5% year over year to about 450,000 new jobs added in Q4, down from 461,500 jobs added in the last quarter of 2025, according to new predictive data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
• The report said “only a handful of companies” were publicizing their 2026 headcount plans so far, and that the “pattern of quieter announcements suggests retailers are again planning to lean on existing staff and on-demand pools rather than committing to large seasonal waves this early.”
• In 2025, seasonal retail hiring posted its smallest seasonal gain since 2008, falling 15% below the 543,100 jobs added in Q4 2024, according to Challenger’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Dive Insight:

Many of the largest U.S. retailers historically announce seasonal hiring targets around this time of the year, per the report. The lack of disclosures appears to be part of a larger trend that began in 2024 when retailers “shifted toward flexible, on-demand staffing models,” Challenger said in its study.

Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said that high prices and tariff concerns are also factoring into retailers’ decisions to assess their current workforce before hiring net-new seasonal workers.

“It’s more about restocking staffing plans surgically than a return to the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring years we saw in 2020 and 2021,” he said in a statement, adding that consumers may also shop more frugally in the fourth quarter amid rising prices.

“The deepening pain from high energy costs may continue into the holiday season, and consumers may contract spending,” Andy Challenger said. “That said, August retail sales jumped 1.2%, and there’s no sign of a major spending pullback. But that resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest retailers.”

Nonetheless, some retailers have released hiring plans.

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