It’s hard to believe the pandemic arrived four years ago — and how much change we’ve experienced in the labor market since then. We’ve moved from the sudden jolt of remote work to the Great [Talent] Reshuffle to the most recent state of hiring freezes and rightsizing workforces amid a generally tight global labor market.

Over the last year, employees have largely sheltered in place, reluctant to make a move due to the softened economy, and the vast majority of companies are seeing very low employee turnover as a result. While it’s easy to mistake low attrition for contentment, in reality many employees feel stuck and wish they could do something new, but haven’t made the leap. Yet.

If history repeats itself, this period of low attrition will be followed by a period of high attrition, and we’re starting to see some early signs of this very phenomenon. Nearly 85% of people in the U.S. are considering changing jobs in 2024, as hiring stabilizes across many industries. Historical trends show that attrition rises as confidence in the economy improves — it’s just a matter of when, not if, it will happen.

And when it does, you’ll need to shift gears fast.

Leaders need to prepare for inevitable attrition spikes

Many companies, particularly in technology, are at risk of being caught flat-footed when attrition spikes. A slowdown in hiring led many to scale back their recruiting teams to save on costs — the same idea as when auto companies reduce purchasing of components like semiconductors when demand for new cars flattens. It seems logical: No cars sold, no need for the chips that power them.

But when demand bounces back unexpectedly, unprepared auto manufacturers struggle to reignite the supply chain. Just as carmakers must anticipate supply chain challenges, today’s leaders must prepare for and mitigate inevitable attrition spikes. Even if you’re not expecting to grow your employee base, backfilling departures often constitutes the bulk of corporate hiring.

‍

Read full article here