It’s not an easy time to be on the hunt for work—applicants are up against “ghost jobs,”AI’s workforce takeover, and a sluggish hiring cycle. It’s forced some job-seekers to apply to thousands of postings, or perform elaborate stunts to get the attention of employers. Now, professionals’ belief in their ability to bounce back after a layoff has fallen to a worrying low.The average perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current role was lost fell to 43.1% in December 2025, a 4.2% drop from the year before, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

It marks a record low since the surveys started tracking the data back in 2013, and the report notes that several demographics are driving rock-bottom employment expectations.

The country’s lowest earners making less than six figures, those without college diplomas, and perhaps surprisingly, baby boomers over the age of 60—on the edge of retirement—have the lowest confidence in the job hunt right now.

All workers are worried—even professionals with a steady job think they’re about to get laid off

“Americans don’t feel like the current job market is working for them,” Daniel Zhao, chief economist at employment site Glassdoor, tells Fortune. “Workers on the lower end of the income spectrum or without a college degree are often more susceptible to the swings of the business cycle, so it’s natural for them to be more concerned about signs of an economic slowdown.”

Even professionals holding down a gig worry they’re on shaky ground. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year increased to 15.2%, up 1.4% from the year before, according to the report. Meanwhile, the perceived probability that an exit will be voluntary has decreased: The expected quit rate over the next 12 months whittled down to 17.5%.

“Generally, workers are anxious about job security as they see prominent layoffs in the headlines and hear from their laid-off friends who are having trouble getting back into work,” Zhao explains.

“Even workers who are currently employed feel stuck in their jobs as the current job market limits their ability to find a better job and leverage to get a raise or promotion internally.”

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