Is the U.S. labor market sliding into its own version of the 1970s? Data shows slower recruiting, stubborn wages and a whiff of “stagflation” that has one economist reaching for historical comparisons.

But before visions of gas lines and double-digit unemployment set in, Andrew Flowers, chief economist at programmatic recruitment marketing firm Appcast, offers a critical caveat: “Mild stagflation does not mean a dire recession.”

Economic uncertainty and recruiting

In his assessment, Flowers describes a labor market with elevated wage growth and a divide between “standing up” and “sitting down” jobs. These trends, he writes in a recent blog post, may continue or worsen due to policy uncertainty, including immigration restrictions, tariff volatility, Medicaid cuts, threats to Fed independence and the current government shutdown.

“With no signs yet of a major labor market recession or wage-price spike,” Flowers notes, what’s happening is something potentially more vexing for HR leaders: a market that’s cooling without actually loosening.

‘Contrary signals’ in recruiting

Recruiting has downshifted, yet wages remain elevated and labor shortages persist across industries—a combination that leaves talent acquisition teams navigating contradictory signals.

It’s a precarious balancing act. The economic uncertainty makes predictions treacherous, and Flowers argues that staying informed and agile isn’t just good practice—it’s survival. For HR professionals, Flowers warns that “mild stagflation and uncertainty are likely to mean lackluster hiring in 2026.”

HR tech in the news

Workplace culture platform Comparably announced its 2025 workplace awards. Google leaps to the top for Best Perks & Benefits, and Adobe and ADP earned the Happiest Employees nod. Rankings are based on 20 million employee ratings across 70,000 companies.

A new report from Dropbox identifies the top 15% of employees, dubbed “thriving employees,” who excel in both engagement and performance. While 78% of employees report increased productivity when using AI tools, thriving employees take it further. They combine AI with behaviors such as building cross-team relationships and prioritizing deep work.

Deloitte launched Scout, an AI-powered learning assistant that personalizes professional development for U.S. employees. It is designed to streamline enterprise access to learning opportunities, supporting Deloitte’s focus on innovation, agility and building a future-ready workforce.

Globant, a digitally native company specializing in technology, design and innovation, announced a strategic partnership with online learning platform Egg. Together, they launched the AI Talent Shift program to help enterprises adopt AI and upskill their workforce for future competitiveness.

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