HR leaders are entering 2026 in a haze of opinions around AI adoption, workforce planning and employee engagement. However, some expert projections reveal significant gaps between executive optimism and operational reality, which puts uncertainty on the CHRO’s desk along with all the regular responsibilities.

According to industry leaders, here are four areas where expectations diverge from what evidence suggests will actually unfold.

AI will drive measurable productivity gains

The reality: Most organizations will struggle with AI change management

“As organizations move beyond experimentation, 2026 will be the year of outcomes for AI,” says Amy Cappellanti-Wolf, chief people officer at Dayforce. “The focus will shift from potential to performance and real measurement of business results across operations, talent acquisition and employee engagement.”

But industry analyst Rebecca Wettemann sees a different picture. Only 13% of HR leaders say their skills data is ready to optimize employee skills for future strategic objectives, according to Valoir’s July 2025 report.

“As organizations look more seriously at AI transformation, many will find HR’s employee skills inventories and understanding are dated, reactionary and fragmented,” Wettemann notes. “If HR doesn’t step up, other leaders like IT and line of business will take the lead on skills inventory and strategic planning.”

Carolyn Troyan, CEO of Leadership360 and former HR executive, predicts a reckoning. “If you don’t yet have a plan for how each division will embrace AI, that should be a top priority for 2026,” she says.

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